fantasy value

A variable coined fantasy_value(fv) serves as the trading model's dependent variable, as well as one of the predictive variables. The metric derives from Value-Based-Drafting(vbd), a concept of Joe Bryant, co-founder of footballguys. You can make yourself familiar here.

For a baseline reference, this calculator uses a mean positional starter instead of a replacement level player; a baseline which better captures positional advantage once flex positions are introduced. The algorithm for fv follows these steps:

calculate fantasy_points(fp) according to league scoring
create bins according to league settings

a bin is created for each starting requirement
each bin can have max players equalling league size
bins are considered full whence the max is reached

sort players of every eligible position by fp, high to low
in this order, assign players to bins until all bins are full

fill single position bins first
if all eligible single position bins are full, assign player to an eligible flex position bin
skip player if all eligible bins are full, unless an eligible flex position bin has a player which can be moved to another bin

players who have been assigned to a bin, group by position
for each position group, calculate the positional_baseline(pb), equal to the mean of fp
calculate each player's net_fantasy_value(nfv), equal to fp minus pb
players who have been assigned to a bin, sort by nfv
determine the value_adjustment(adj), equal to the min of nfv
calculate each player's fv, nfv-adj

players who weren't assigned to a bin have fv of 0

It's elaborate, but the process addresses the issue of flex positions and allows not for negative values. An average positional starter baseline introduces a dilemma of getting negative fv, which is incongruent with the model's design. The adj part was added to necessitate fv will always have a positive value.

The following charts explain the process defining fv. The example is from week 14, 2020, just because. League settings are 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FL(RB/WR/TE), 1SF(QB/RB/WR/TE). I used an 8 team league to save myself some typing.

steps 1-3:

pos	name	fp	bin
rb	derrick henry	36.2	rb1-1
qb	lamar jackson	34.9	qb1-1
qb	aaron rodgers	30.9	qb1-2
rb	jonathan taylor	30.5	rb1-2
rb	miles sanders	29.6	rb1-3
wr	stefon diggs	29.1	wr1-1
rb	kareem hunt	28.0	rb1-4
te	travis kelce	27.6	te1-1
wr	allen robinson	27.3	wr1-2
qb	tua tagovailoa	27.0	qb1-3
qb	baker mayfield	27.0	qb1-4
wr	calvin ridley	26.4	wr1-3
rb	mike davis	26.3	rb1-5
wr	tyreek hill	26.1	wr1-4
qb	drew lock	25.6	qb1-5
wr	ty hilton	25.6	wr1-5
qb	mitchell trubisky	25.0	qb1-6
rb	david montgomery	24.5	rb1-6
wr	davante adams	24.5	wr1-6
rb	nick chubb	24.3	rb1-7
wr	aj brown	24.2	wr1-7
qb	derek carr	23.8	qb1-7
te	mike gesicki	23.5	te1-2
rb	austin ekeler	22.6	rb1-8
wr	kj hamler	22.6	wr1-8
wr	deandre hopkins	22.6	wr2-1
rb	alvin kamara	22.4	rb2-1
qb	russell wilson	22.1	qb1-8
wr	brandon aiyuk	21.9	wr2-2
rb	cam akers	21.4	rb2-2
wr	nelson agholor	21.0	wr2-3
wr	marquez valdes-scantling	20.5	wr2-4
qb	teddy bridgewater	20.4	sf1-1
qb	jalen hurts	20.3	sf1-2
wr	keenan allen	20.2	wr2-5
qb	taysom hill	19.9	sf1-3
wr	keelan cole	19.7	wr2-6
rb	dalvin cook	19.0	rb2-3
rb	chris carson	18.8	rb2-4
wr	rashard higgins	18.8	wr2-7
wr	russell gage	18.8	wr2-8
rb	gus edwards	18.3	rb2-5
wr	aj green	18.2	fl1-1
wr	dk metcalt	18.1	fl1-2
qb	philip rivers	17.8	sf1-4
wr	robbie anderson	17.7	fl1-3
qb	patrick maomes	17.6	sf1-5
wr	tyron johnson	17.5	fl1-4
wr	juju smith-schuster	17.5	fl1-5
qb	kyler murray	17.5	sf1-6
qb	josh allen	17.3	sf1-7
qb	deshaun watson	16.7	sf1-8
qb	ryan tannehill	16.5	skip
wr	michael thomas	16.4	fl1-6
te	tj hockenson	16.3	te1-3
te	irv smith jr	16.3	te1-4
wr	curtis samuel	16.0	fl1-7
qb	justin herbert	15.7	skip
qb	tom brady	15.6	skip
rb	ronald jones ii	15.4	rb2-6
wr	lynn bowden jr	15.4	fl1-8
qb	andy dalton	15.3	skip
qb	kirk cousins	15.1	skip
wr	amari cooper	15.1	fl2-1
rb	deandre swift	15.0	rb2-7
te	robert tonyan	14.6	te1-5
qb	jared goff	14.6	skip
te	darren waller	14.5	te1-6
qb	matthew stafford	14.4	skip
wr	cooper kupp	14.3	fl2-2
rb	clyde edwards-helaire	14.1	rb2-8
rb	kenyan drake	14.0	fl2-3
qb	brandon allen	13.9	skip
wr	emmanuel sanders	13.8	fl2-4
qb	gardner minshew ii	13.3	skip
wr	marquise brown	13.0	fl2-5
rb	tony pollard	12.8	fl2-6
te	mark andrews	12.8	te1-7
te	jared cook	12.7	te1-8
wr	tim patrick	12.6	fl2-7
wr	danny amendola	12.6	fl2-8

step 4:

bin: qb1	name	fp	bin
qb	lamar jackson	34.9	qb1-1
qb	aaron rodgers	30.9	qb1-2
qb	tua tagovailoa	27.0	qb1-3
qb	baker mayfield	27.0	qb1-4
qb	drew lock	25.6	qb1-5
qb	mitchell trubisky	25.0	qb1-6
qb	derek carr	23.8	qb1-7
qb	russell wilson	22.1	qb1-8

bin: rb1	name	fp	bin
rb	derrick henry	36.2	rb1-1
rb	jonathan taylor	30.5	rb1-2
rb	miles sanders	29.6	rb1-3
rb	kareem hunt	28.0	rb1-4
rb	mike davis	26.3	rb1-5
rb	david montgomery	24.5	rb1-6
rb	nick chubb	24.3	rb1-7
rb	austin ekeler	22.6	rb1-8

bin: rb2	name	fp	bin
rb	alvin kamara	22.4	rb2-1
rb	cam akers	21.4	rb2-2
rb	dalvin cook	19.0	rb2-3
rb	chris carson	18.8	rb2-4
rb	gus edwards	18.3	rb2-5
rb	ronald jones ii	15.4	rb2-6
rb	deandre swift	15.0	rb2-7
rb	clyde edwards-helaire	14.1	rb2-8

bin: wr1	name	fp	bin
wr	stefon diggs	29.1	wr1-1
wr	allen robinson	27.3	wr1-2
wr	calvin ridley	26.4	wr1-3
wr	tyreek hill	26.1	wr1-4
wr	ty hilton	25.6	wr1-5
wr	davante adams	24.5	wr1-6
wr	aj brown	24.2	wr1-7
wr	kj hamler	22.6	wr1-8

bin: wr2	name	fp	bin
wr	deandre hopkins	22.6	wr2-1
wr	brandon aiyuk	21.9	wr2-2
wr	nelson agholor	21.0	wr2-3
wr	marquez valdes-scantling	20.5	wr2-4
wr	keenan allen	20.2	wr2-5
wr	keelan cole	19.7	wr2-6
wr	rashard higgins	18.8	wr2-7
wr	russell gage	18.8	wr2-8

bin: te1	name	fp	bin
te	travis kelce	27.6	te1-1
te	mike gesicki	23.5	te1-2
te	tj hockenson	16.3	te1-3
te	irv smith jr	16.3	te1-4
te	robert tonyan	14.6	te1-5
te	darren waller	14.5	te1-6
te	mark andrews	12.8	te1-7
te	jared cook	12.7	te1-8

bin: fl1	name	fp	bin
wr	aj green	18.2	fl1-1
wr	dk metcalt	18.1	fl1-2
wr	robbie anderson	17.7	fl1-3
wr	tyron johnson	17.5	fl1-4
wr	juju smith-schuster	17.5	fl1-5
wr	michael thomas	16.4	fl1-6
wr	curtis samuel	16.0	fl1-7
wr	lynn bowden jr	15.4	fl1-8

bin: fl2	name	fp	bin
wr	amari cooper	15.1	fl2-1
wr	cooper kupp	14.3	fl2-2
rb	kenyan drake	14.0	fl2-3
wr	emmanuel sanders	13.8	fl2-4
wr	marquise brown	13.0	fl2-5
rb	tony pollard	12.8	fl2-6
wr	tim patrick	12.6	fl2-7
wr	danny amendola	12.6	fl2-8

bin: sf1	name	fp	bin
qb	teddy bridgewater	20.4	sf1-1
qb	jalen hurts	20.3	sf1-2
qb	taysom hill	19.9	sf1-3
qb	philip rivers	17.8	sf1-4
qb	patrick maomes	17.6	sf1-5
qb	kyler murray	17.5	sf1-6
qb	josh allen	17.3	sf1-7
qb	deshaun watson	16.7	sf1-8

steps 5-6:

pos	name	fp	bin
qb	lamar jackson	34.9	qb1-1
qb	aaron rodgers	30.9	qb1-2
qb	tua tagovailoa	27.0	qb1-3
qb	baker mayfield	27.0	qb1-4
qb	drew lock	25.6	qb1-5
qb	mitchell trubisky	25.0	qb1-6
qb	derek carr	23.8	qb1-7
qb	russell wilson	22.1	qb1-8
qb	teddy bridgewater	20.4	sf1-1
qb	jalen hurts	20.3	sf1-2
qb	taysom hill	19.9	sf1-3
qb	philip rivers	17.8	sf1-4
qb	patrick maomes	17.6	sf1-5
qb	kyler murray	17.5	sf1-6
qb	josh allen	17.3	sf1-7
qb	deshaun watson	16.7	sf1-8
	qb_baseline:	22.7

pos	name	fp	bin
rb	derrick henry	36.2	rb1-1
rb	jonathan taylor	30.5	rb1-2
rb	miles sanders	29.6	rb1-3
rb	kareem hunt	28.0	rb1-4
rb	mike davis	26.3	rb1-5
rb	david montgomery	24.5	rb1-6
rb	nick chubb	24.3	rb1-7
rb	austin ekeler	22.6	rb1-8
rb	alvin kamara	22.4	rb2-1
rb	cam akers	21.4	rb2-2
rb	dalvin cook	19.0	rb2-3
rb	chris carson	18.8	rb2-4
rb	gus edwards	18.3	rb2-5
rb	ronald jones ii	15.4	rb2-6
rb	deandre swift	15.0	rb2-7
rb	clyde edwards-helaire	14.1	rb2-8
rb	kenyan drake	14.0	fl2-3
rb	tony pollard	12.8	fl2-6
	rb_baseline:	22.4

pos	name	fp	bin
wr	stefon diggs	29.1	wr1-1
wr	allen robinson	27.3	wr1-2
wr	calvin ridley	26.4	wr1-3
wr	tyreek hill	26.1	wr1-4
wr	ty hilton	25.6	wr1-5
wr	davante adams	24.5	wr1-6
wr	aj brown	24.2	wr1-7
wr	kj hamler	22.6	wr1-8
wr	deandre hopkins	22.6	wr2-1
wr	brandon aiyuk	21.9	wr2-2
wr	nelson agholor	21.0	wr2-3
wr	marquez valdes-scantling	20.5	wr2-4
wr	keenan allen	20.2	wr2-5
wr	keelan cole	19.7	wr2-6
wr	rashard higgins	18.8	wr2-7
wr	russell gage	18.8	wr2-8
wr	aj green	18.2	fl1-1
wr	dk metcalt	18.1	fl1-2
wr	robbie anderson	17.7	fl1-3
wr	tyron johnson	17.5	fl1-4
wr	juju smith-schuster	17.5	fl1-5
wr	michael thomas	16.4	fl1-6
wr	curtis samuel	16.0	fl1-7
wr	lynn bowden jr	15.4	fl1-8
wr	amari cooper	15.1	fl2-1
wr	cooper kupp	14.3	fl2-2
wr	emmanuel sanders	13.8	fl2-4
wr	marquise brown	13.0	fl2-5
wr	tim patrick	12.6	fl2-7
wr	danny amendola	12.6	fl2-8
	wr_baseline:	19.6

pos	name	fp	bin
te	travis kelce	27.6	te1-1
te	mike gesicki	23.5	te1-2
te	tj hockenson	16.3	te1-3
te	irv smith jr	16.3	te1-4
te	robert tonyan	14.6	te1-5
te	darren waller	14.5	te1-6
te	mark andrews	12.8	te1-7
te	jared cook	12.7	te1-8
	te_baseline:	17.3

step 7:

pos	name	fp	pb	nfv
rb	derrick henry	36.2-	22.4=	13.8
qb	lamar jackson	34.9-	22.7=	12.2
te	travis kelce	27.6-	17.3=	10.3
wr	stefon diggs	29.1-	19.6=	9.5
qb	aaron rodgers	30.9-	22.7=	8.2
rb	johnathan taylor	30.5-	22.4=	8.1
wr	allen robinson	27.3-	19.6=	7.7
rb	miles sanders	29.6-	22.4=	7.2
wr	calvin ridley	26.4-	19.6=	6.8
wr	tyreek hill	26.1-	19.6=	6.5
te	mike gesicki	23.5-	17.3=	6.2
wr	ty hilton	25.6-	19.6=	6.0
rb	kareem hunt	28.0-	22.4=	5.6
wr	davante adams	24.5-	19.6=	4.9
wr	aj brown	24.2-	19.6=	4.6
qb	tua tagovailoa	27.0-	22.7=	4.3
qb	baker mayfield	27.0-	22.7=	4.3
rb	mike davis	26.3-	22.4=	3.0
wr	kj hamler	22.6-	19.6=	3.0
wr	deandre hopkins	22.6-	19.6=	3.0
qb	drew lock	25.6-	22.7=	2.9
wr	brandon aiyuk	21.9-	19.6=	2.3
qb	mitchell trubisky	25.0-	22.7=	2.2
rb	david montgomery	24.5-	22.4=	2.1
rb	nick chubb	24.3-	22.4=	1.9
wr	nelson agholor	21.0-	19.6=	1.4
qb	derek carr	23.8-	22.7=	1.1
wr	marquez valdes-scantling	20.5-	19.6=	0.9
wr	keenan allen	20.2-	19.6=	0.6
rb	austin ekeler	22.6-	22.4=	0.2
wr	keelan cole	19.7-	19.6=	0.1
rb	alvin kamara	22.4-	22.4=	0.0
qb	russell wilson	22.1-	22.7=	-0.6
wr	rashard higgins	18.8-	19.6=	-0.8
wr	russell gage	18.8-	19.6=	-0.8
rb	cam akers	21.4-	22.4=	-1.0
te	tj hockenson	16.3-	17.3=	-1.0
te	irv smith jr	16.3-	17.3=	-1.0
wr	aj green	18.2-	19.6=	-1.4
wr	dk metcalf	18.1-	19.6=	-1.5
wr	robbie anderson	17.7-	19.6=	-1.9
wr	tyron johnson	17.5-	19.6=	-2.1
wr	juju smith-schuster	17.5-	19.6=	-2.1
qb	teddy bridgewater	20.4-	22.7=	-2.3
qb	jalen hurts	20.3-	22.7=	-2.5
te	robert tonyan	14.6-	17.3=	-2.7
qb	taysom hill	19.9-	22.7=	-2.8
te	darren waller	14.5-	17.3=	-2.8
wr	michael thomas	16.4-	19.6=	-3.2
rb	dalvin cook	19.0-	22.4=	-3.4
rb	chris carson	18.8-	22.4=	-3.6
wr	curtis samuel	16.0-	19.6=	-3.6
rb	gus edwards	18.3-	22.4=	-4.1
wr	lynn bowden jr	15.4-	19.6=	-4.2
te	mark andrews	12.8-	17.3=	-4.5
wr	amari cooper	15.1-	19.6=	-4.5
te	jared cook	12.7-	17.3=	-4.6
qb	philip rivers	17.8-	22.7=	-4.9
qb	patrick mahomes	17.6-	22.7=	-5.1
qb	kyler murray	17.5-	22.7=	-5.2
wr	cooper kupp	14.3-	19.6=	-5.3
qb	josh allen	17.3-	22.7=	-5.4
wr	emmanuel sanders	13.8-	19.6=	-5.8
qb	deshaun watson	16.7-	22.7=	-6.1
wr	marquise brown	13.0-	19.6=	-6.6
rb	ronald jones ii	15.4-	22.4=	-7.0
wr	tim patrick	12.6-	19.6=	-7.0
wr	danny amendola	12.6-	19.6=	-7.0
rb	deandre swift	15.0-	22.4=	-7.4
rb	clyde edwards-helaire	14.1-	22.4=	-8.3
rb	kenyan drake	14.0-	22.4=	-8.4
rb	tony pollard	12.8-	22.4=	-9.6
	value_adjustment:			-9.6

steps 8-10:

pos	name	nfv	adj	fv
rb	derrick henry	13.8+	9.6=	23.4
qb	lamar jackson	12.2+	9.6=	21.8
te	travis kelce	10.3+	9.6=	19.9
wr	stefon diggs	9.5+	9.6=	19.1
qb	aaron rodgers	8.2+	9.6=	17.8
rb	johnathan taylor	8.1+	9.6=	17.7
wr	allen robinson	7.7+	9.6=	17.3
rb	miles sanders	7.2+	9.6=	16.8
wr	calvin ridley	6.8+	9.6=	16.4
wr	tyreek hill	6.5+	9.6=	16.1
te	mike gesicki	6.2+	9.6=	15.8
wr	ty hilton	6.0+	9.6=	15.6
rb	kareem hunt	5.6+	9.6=	15.2
wr	davante adams	4.9+	9.6=	14.5
wr	aj brown	4.6+	9.6=	14.2
qb	tua tagovailoa	4.3+	9.6=	13.9
qb	baker mayfield	4.3+	9.6=	13.9
rb	mike davis	3.0+	9.6=	13.5
wr	kj hamler	3.0+	9.6=	12.6
wr	deandre hopkins	3.0+	9.6=	12.6
qb	drew lock	2.9+	9.6=	12.5
wr	brandon aiyuk	2.3+	9.6=	11.9
qb	mitchell trubisky	2.2+	9.6=	11.9
rb	david montgomery	2.1+	9.6=	11.7
rb	nick chubb	1.9+	9.6=	11.5
wr	nelson agholor	1.4+	9.6=	11.0
qb	derek carr	1.1+	9.6=	10.7
wr	marquez valdes-scantling	0.9+	9.6=	10.5
wr	keenan allen	0.6+	9.6=	10.2
rb	austin ekeler	0.2+	9.6=	9.8
wr	keelan cole	0.1+	9.6=	9.7
rb	alvin kamara	0.0+	9.6=	9.6
qb	russell wilson	-0.6+	9.6=	9.0
wr	rashard higgins	-0.8+	9.6=	8.8
wr	russell gage	-0.8+	9.6=	8.8
rb	cam akers	-1.0+	9.6=	8.6
te	tj hockenson	-1.0+	9.6=	8.6
te	irv smith jr	-1.0+	9.6=	8.6
wr	aj green	-1.4+	9.6=	8.2
wr	dk metcalf	-1.5+	9.6=	8.1
wr	robbie anderson	-1.9+	9.6=	7.7
wr	tyron johnson	-2.1+	9.6=	7.5
wr	juju smith-schuster	-2.1+	9.6=	7.5
qb	teddy bridgewater	-2.3+	9.6=	7.3
qb	jalen hurts	-2.5+	9.6=	7.2
te	robert tonyan	-2.7+	9.6=	6.9
qb	taysom hill	-2.8+	9.6=	6.8
te	darren waller	-2.8+	9.6=	6.8
wr	michael thomas	-3.2+	9.6=	6.4
rb	dalvin cook	-3.4+	9.6=	6.2
rb	chris carson	-3.6+	9.6=	6.0
wr	curtis samuel	-3.6+	9.6=	6.0
rb	gus edwards	-4.1+	9.6=	5.5
wr	lynn bowden jr	-4.2+	9.6=	5.4
te	mark andrews	-4.5+	9.6=	5.1
wr	amari cooper	-4.5+	9.6=	5.1
te	jared cook	-4.6+	9.6=	5.0
qb	philip rivers	-4.9+	9.6=	4.7
qb	patrick mahomes	-5.1+	9.6=	4.5
qb	kyler murray	-5.2+	9.6=	4.4
wr	cooper kupp	-5.3+	9.6=	4.3
qb	josh allen	-5.4+	9.6=	4.2
wr	emmanuel sanders	-5.8+	9.6=	3.8
qb	deshaun watson	-6.1+	9.6=	3.5
wr	marquise brown	-6.6+	9.6=	3.0
rb	ronald jones ii	-7.0+	9.6=	2.6
wr	tim patrick	-7.0+	9.6=	2.6
wr	danny amendola	-7.0+	9.6=	2.6
rb	deandre swift	-7.4+	9.6=	2.2
rb	clyde edwards-helaire	-8.3+	9.6=	1.3
rb	kenyan drake	-8.4+	9.6=	1.2
rb	tony pollard	-9.6+	9.6=	0.0
	everybody else			0.0

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